Back in the 50s, 60s, 70s :-
After MKT who was known for his devotional musical blockbusters left Tamil cinema, the torch was passed on to M.G.Ramachandran a.k.a. M.G.R. & Sivaji Ganesan. M.G.R. was known purely as an entertainer who mostly played people's savior in movies, while Sivaji Ganesan used to play roles that are generally heavy on emotions with very high melodrama. They were nick named Makkal Thilagam (People's pride or People's Hero) & Nadigar Thilagam (Pride of Acting) respectively .
Both of them entered the industry and reached the top after lot of struggles, hence they consider producers as their boss and were much humble with them. Budgets used to be in Lakhs, their salaries would be contributing around 10%. They used to do 3 to 5 films per year. Everything was under control, If a film flopped they would make plans to finish a quickie with lower salary and controlled budget as a compensation.
Once they started aging, M.G.R began to restrict the no. of films he did and concentrated more on politics, while Sivaji started playing supporting roles and roles that suited his age. This paved the way for Rajinikanth & Kamal Haasan to take over.
Though the no. of films they did was comparatively lower than the previous generation, they did learn ethics from their seniors. Rajini & Kamal also worked on other industries : Telugu, Kannada & Hindi and also remade films from other languages .
Everything was going fine as long they were responsible but starting from the 90s, budgets began to go out of control and so did their salaries. Their films made lots of producers, distributors and exhibitors rich, this resulted in new producers & distributors slowly entering the industry with little idea about film business. They used to borrow money from loan sharks and fund / buy films. In case their film flopped, it would push them deep down to debt. In one occasion Rajinikanth compensated distributors who lost their investments when his home production Valli bombed at the box office, something that he went on to do again with his future films Baba & Kuselan .
Kamal Haasan also had his fair share of big flops like Aalavandhan, Hey Ram, Anbe Sivam etc.
Rise of Thala & Ilayathalapathy :-
When careers of Rajinikanth & Kamal Haasan had hit a rough patch in early 2000s, tier 2 actors of their generation Vijay & Ajith began to rise. Vijay's "Ghilli" broke Padayappa's TN record and stood as All Time No.1, while Ajith gave blockbusters like Dheena, Villain, Varalaru & Billa. However their rise also resulted in return of investment hitting a new low as both gave big flops in between their blockbusters .
However its not just Vijay & Ajith, their seniors Rajinikanth & Kamal Haasan were equally responsible for it.
Rajinikanth's "Sivaji The Boss" was made at a very costly budget of 45 crores. AVM Productions demanded 35 crores for TN Rights which distributors felt was a highly risky deal. However since it also had big names like Shankar & AR Rahman, they reluctantly agreed to buy the film . Sivaji was the last film to sell 1 crore tickets in Tamil Nadu and closed with a share of 43 crores.
Rajinikanth's close friend Tirupur Subramaniam bought Coimbatore rights for 8 crores, it collected 9 crores share in full run. Though it was profitable, it earned just 1 crore profit at the risk of 8 crores investment, Subramaniam confronted Rajinikanth and told him that a blockbuster has given him only 1 crore profit, imagine what would have happened If the film had flopped ? Rajinikanth asked Subramaniam to chill and said that he trusts his producers and believed they won't let him down. Subramaniam however remained unconvinced and told Rajini that this risky trend will shake the foundations of ethics in Tamil Cinema. Subramaniam also slowly distanced himself from film distribution. AVM Productions also decided to stop producing films once they are done with their ongoing projects Ayan & Vettaikaran.
As Subramaniam expected, Rajini's next film Kuselan was a huge disaster resulting in its distributor Pyramid Saimira closing their company for good, they were also unable to fund Kamal Haasan's Marmayogi because of the losses incurred in Kuselan.
This was only the beginning, Kamal Haasan's Dasavatharam which everyone thought would break Sivaji The Boss' records failed to do so, it earned its producer Aascar Ravichandran 60 crores (Theatrical+Audio, Satellite & Digital Rights) against the 40 crores budget.
Producers & Distributors were very worried as Rajinikanth & Kamal did very limited no. of films while Vijay & Ajith gave mostly flops in that period. Suriya emerged as a ray of hope with Ayan . A Blockbuster that established Suriya as the most bankable actor of his generation . Though his next film Aadhavan managed to just breakeven in Tamil Nadu, his mass entertainer "Singam" was a huge blockbuster, it was the first Non-Rajini / Kamal film to collect 30 crores share.
While Distributors continued to debate who will be the next Superstar, they also felt Suriya was perfect to fill the spot of Kamal Haasan. Suriya's choice of scripts had shades of the varied films (Mass & Class) Kamal Haasan used to do when he was competing with Rajini . They set the Superstar debate aside and began to trust Suriya.
Few months after Singam's success, India's costliest film Endhiran released . Though it was very profitable in APTG, Karnataka, Kerala & Key overseas markets, it gave very little profit in Tamil Nadu. For instance, there is a B center where Endhiran was bought for 50 Lakhs but recovered only 39 Lakhs. A former distributor recalled an old Rajinikanth film which was bought for Rs.5000 but collected Rs.50,000 and wondered If something like that will ever happen again .
A year later the most bankable Suriya also disappointed few distributors when his Diwali release 7 am arivu managed to collect only 27.5 crores share against their prediction of 40 crores lifetime share. Ajith's Blockbuster Mankatha though 1 crore behind 7 am arivu in gross collected 29 crores share. The film which starred Ajith in a full length negative role broke all myths such as people like only heroes and not villains.
Suriya's Maattraan also failed to meet expectations and closed with 28 crores lifetime share. A month later, Thuppakki gave Vijay his full fledged royal comeback in style. His previous highest Nanban grossed only 43.5 crores in Tamil Nadu while Thuppaki's closing share itself was more than that (44.6 crores) . Distributors had high expectations on his next films, Thalaivaa & Jilla brought them losses, while Kaththi & Theri were only marginally profitable .
Suriya's Singam 2 collected close to 39 crores share in 2013. It made around 30% profit which distributors began to convince themselves that itself was huge as Thuppakki also gave them profits in the same range.
Ajith's Vedalam collected close to 50 crores share against 37 crores TN Rights. Producers of his upcoming film Vivegam are demanding 50 crores for TN Rights.
Fast forward to the present year,
Bairavaa collected only 40 crores share against its TN Rights valued @ 50 crores . Singam 3 is about to close with a share of 27 crores against TN Rights valued @ 41 crores .
Conclusion :-
Long back, an average grosser was a film which managed to earn back its investments . Above Average grosser was a film that earned marginal profits . A hit film was a film that returned twice the investment . A Super Hit gave around 2 times as much as its budget/rights . A Blockbuster gave around 3 times profits.
But today,
Blockbuster - 30% profits
Super Hit - 20% profits
Hit - Breakeven and some marginal profits .
Semi Hit - Around 5% loss
Above Average - Around 10% loss
Average - Around 20% loss
Below Average - Around 25% loss or close to 30% loss in case of own release.
Flop - Around 30% loss
Disaster - More than 30% loss .
When Distributors loss crores when a film is not a hit but earn only Lakhs when its a success . Can tier 1 actors give a genuine blockbuster in the near future ?
Thuppakki TN share was 31 crore only
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