Thursday 1 August 2019

The 1st half of 2019 had a super smooth takeoff but crashed towards the end :-


THE TN TOP 5 :-




1. VISWASAM  :- 

Gross : 130.25 crores 

Share : 73.75 crores 

This was one very big surprise as
Viswasam was carrying not so positive vibes right from the shoot having a delayed start to badly designed posters. On top of this, Viswasam clashed with Superstar Rajinikanth's Petta. But to everyone's surprise Viswasam opened better than Petta in TN and also became the most watched Ajith film after Kadhal Kottai. Also in recent years a distributor earning 40% more than an investment happened only in case of small films, its a very rare feat in biggies.




General perception is
Ajith films get monstrous openings and post that drop faster than his rival films. But since here close to 70% of the gross revenue was generated after the 4 days opening weekend, Viswasam makes us think otherwise. Is this once in a blue moon event or does it hint that Ajith has new admirers outside FDFS youths ? If so then we'll see Ajith unleash full box office potential in AK 60.

While the next full length
Ajith film has potential to expand his overseas base, it also has the responsibility to prove Viswasam's run in TN was not a fluke.



2. PETTA  :- 

Gross : 105.6 crores 

Share : 57.25 crores 

Karthik Subbaraj promised Petta would be a tribute to vintage Rajinikanth films. Upon release fans acknowledged they've never been so amused by Rajinikanth's antics since Sivaji The Boss. The Pongal release however cost the film's opening big time. With a solo release Petta would have been Rajinikanth's biggest opener in TN.

This also raises doubts whether its wise to release
Darbar on Pongal 2020 because apart from TN Petta lost out on lump of revenue in Telugu as it clashed with NTR Biopic, F2 & Vinaya Vidheya Rama. Nonetheless Petta stands testament to the Superstar's adaptability, Rajini's fire will burn even in the darkest days. 

3. KANCHANA 3 :- 

Gross : 71 crores 

Share : 39 crores

I think it is pointless to talk about Kanchana franchise henceforth because Lawrence will keep dishing out the same thing again once in 4 years with a different numeral as long as there are takers for what he serves. However in comparison with its predecessor Kanchana 2, there is a sharp decline in footfalls post the 1st weekend which hints the brand cannot stay immune to franchise fatigue forever.

4. AVENGERS : END GAME :- 

Gross : 42.75 crores 

Share : 16 crores 

End Game was Hollywood's biggest leap in Indian market till date. Some centers reported first day footfalls were higher than regional biggies including the
Baahubali duology. While the Tamil version couldn't sustain post the weekend, English version had a long royal run in the 3C's.

Avengers
performed on par with biggest hits of tier 2 actors and was also more beneficial to single screens since they got 45-50% of the nett collections.


 

5. NGK :-

Gross : 32.5 crores 

Share : 18 crores 

When the film was announced,
NGK was seen as a ray of hope for Suriya & Selvaraghavan to get their careers back on track but the repeated postponements dented the expectations of Suriya fans outside TN. Kerala was the worst hit territory with the final gross falling behind Suriya's recent first day gross figures. Telugu & overseas also performed below expectations by a margin.

TN had double digit gross opening but footfalls deteriorated in subsequent days. The worst part is
NGK disappointed fans who were never this enthusiastic for a Suriya film since Anjaan. To convince fans, followers to book first day tickets after repeated disappointments is a tough task.


GENUINE HITS :-  

1) Viswasam - 130.25 crores 

2) Petta - 105.6 crores 

3) Dhilluku Dhuddu 2 - 18.45 crores 

4) LKG - 17 crores 

5) Thadam - 21.48 crores 

6) Natpe Thunai - 21.85 crores 

7) Kanchana 3 - 71 crores  

8) Monster - 8.5 crores 

9) Kolaigaran - 14.85 crores 

10) Gurkha - 5.85 crores*

OTHER LANGUAGE FILMS :- 


HINDI :-

1) Uri : The Surgical Strike : 3.71 crores 

2) Gully Boy :
 3.58 crores 

3) Kabir Singh : 
3.51 crores*

4) Bharat : 
3.2 crores  

5) Kesari :
 2.78 crores  


TELUGU :- 

1) Maharshi : 3.55 crores  
Share : 1.4 crores 

2) Jersey : 1.26 crores 
Share : 48 Lakh 

3) F2 : Fun And Frustration : 1.11 crores 
Share : 42 Lakhs

4) Oh Baby : 1 crore (Expected closing)
Share :
 38 Lakhs

Dear Comrade (Telugu version) is also part of Top 5 but gross figures are currently not available.

MALAYALAM :-

1) Lucifer (Only Malayalam) : 2.12 crores

2) Kumbalangi Nights :
 95.77 Lakhs 

3) Madhura Raja : 55.5 Lakhs 


4) Uyare : 
48.65 Lakhs 

5) 
Virus : 48.4 Lakhs  

Lucifer & Kumbalangi Nights are part of the all time top 10 grossers with Lucifer setting new all time record beating Premam (2 crores).  


BIG QUESTION MARK ON THE BANKABILITY OF TIER 2 ACTORS :-


Vantha Rajavathan Varuven was Simbu's immediate release following Blockbuster Chekka Chivantha Vaanam, even the title is lifted from a popular catchphrase delivered by STR in CCV. The film had better content, reviews, performances than AAA and hence VRV was expected to perform lot better than that but didn't do so.

LYCA Productions gave
VRV to the distributors of 2.0 to deduct 18 crores from the advance they were supposed to return. Final TN share is around 5.5 crores, almost 70% less than what VRV was expected to collect.


Very much like VRV, Dev was the immediate next release of a star who just delivered his highest grosser. Dev was lacking something important right from the teaser. Its not right to judge a film based on teaser and trailers but few decent songs are bear minimum for a modern romance like Dev.

Karthi made a no. of bad choices before like Alex Pandian, Azhaguraja but none of them performed as bad as Dev. Previously Thozha had low key hype but that was understandable being an elite bilingual film. With good content Thozha did extremely well in Multiplexes and still enjoys good patronage in television. Dev on the other hand neither had good content or good hype, if not for the boost by Valentines Day counter bookings would have also been terribly embarrassing for someone like Karthi.

Dev ended its TN theatrical run with a share of around 6.5 crores which is lower than the opening weekend revenue of Kadaikutty Singam. Murali Cine Arts lost more than 10 crores, perhaps the biggest loss recorded for a Karthi film till date. As a result people who lost heavily on Dev are after Karthi's upcoming releases for compensation. Kaithi was supposed to release in July but has been moved to an unspecified date to sort out the panchayat. 


 

Ayogya TN Theatrical rights worth 12 crores were acquired by Screen Scene but the film didn't release on the announced date causing both the distributor and theaters to panic. Light House Movie Makers made marginal profits but was not enough to settle deficits accumulated by previous films. The production house held Vishal responsible for not honoring the callsheet he gave for Ayogya. Its said that Vishal failed to show up for shooting in multiple occasions resulting in budget overruns. After losing crucial Friday revenue, Vishal returned a part of his salary to avoid further damage but it was too late. 

Ayogya
 saw the light of the day on Saturday, Vishal's acting received flak while climax was getting more favorable response but the word never fully reached mainstream audience because cricket match took away the spotlight on Sunday and by Monday people lost interest on Ayogya and choose to watch Atharvaa's 100 instead. Ayogya TN gross fell short of 10 crores and Screen Scene faced around 60% loss. It remains to be seen how Vishal saves his upcoming films from the aftermath of Ayogya's result. 


Next in line is Mr Local starring Sivakarthikeyan & Nayanthara. Although fans were critical of the film after M Rajesh replaced Vignesh Shivn, Sivakarthikeyan was expected to pull B & C and family audience to theaters for a decent total but what happened was totally unexpected. 

Mr Local first day audience was more of youths than family audience. The situation in B & C was the most shocking part as Mr Local opened below all Sivakarthikeyan films in the last 5 years. The footfalls were roughly on par with Maan Karate and no where worth comparing with Kaaki Sattai, Rajini Murugan, REMO or Velaikkaran.

Despite being a summer release the final total was even worse as
Mr Local fell behind the likes of Ethirneechal & Kedi Billa Killadi Ranga. TN closing share stood at 11.5 crores approx. against rights valued @ 27 crores. This clearly shows Sivakarthikeyan's regular audience didn't turn up for Mr Local. It is to be noted that Studio Green bought back few areas from Tanvee Films and released on their own.

However distributors who bought the remaining areas lost heavily like Madurai which was sold for 4 crores but managed to recover only 1.75 crores.
Sivakarthikeyan's previous film Seema Raja also got negative response but had huge opening and collected 25 crores lifetime share, keeping that mind selling Mr Local area-wise @ 27 crores ratio seemed fair. 




After fetching critical acclaim for his performance in Super Deluxe, Vijay Sethupathi returned to the big screen with a commercial entertainer.Sindhubaadh marked the reunion of Vijay Sethupathi and Director S.U. Arun Kumar. Their first film Panaiyaarum Padminiyum has a cult following while Sethupathi helped Vijay Sethupathi expand his market in B & C centers. The 3rd film Sindhubaadh was shot in lot of exotic foreign locations and Tenkasi.

On the day of release,
Sindhubaadh shows were cancelled because of financial issues. Since the film marked his son's full length acting debut, Vijay Sethupathi returned a part of his salary to facilitate the release of Sindhubaadh. Despite releasing after so much struggle the film faced outright rejection and managed to collect only 5 crores share against rights valued @ 9.5 crores. 



MOST PROFITABLE VENTURE :-  




LKG made at a budget of 3.5 crores collected 8.25 crores share in TN alone. Theatrical rights outside TN and Non-Theatrical Rights like Satellite, Digital also fetched good prices. Without a shadow of a doubt, LKG is the most profitable venture of 2019 and it is highly unlikely to see another Tamil film make so much profit at least in the remainder of 2019.
There are a no. of films which made average to below average biz in theaters but were profitable after adding Non-Theatrical rights. Super Deluxe is a good example. The film made at a budget of 15 crores managed to recover only 12 crores from worldwide theatrical revenue but turned profitable after Netflix acquired digital rights for 7 crores. Prabhu Deva's Devi 2 was profitable after sales of Hindi dubbing rights.

Smaller films like
Game Over & Nenjam Nermaiyundu Odu Raja largely benefited through sales of satellite and digital rights. Game Over found takers in the 3C's particularly in Multiplexes while NNOR had decent footfalls in areas like Trichy.

Kadaram Kondan is also a profitable venture after Vijay TV acquired Satellite & Digital rights for 13 crores. In TN, the film recovered only 10 crores share against area-wise advance valued @ 15 crores approx. which is quite low for a Vikram film. 

NGK & Ratchasi produced by Dreamwarrior Pictures failed in theaters but managed to cover landing costs through sales of Non-Theatrical Rights. 


THINGS IN STORE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF 2018 :- 

August :-




After months of dilly dallying, Nerkonda Paarvai South India (Excluding Telugu) Theatrical Rights were signed by Gemini Films for 42 crores. They have sold Coimbatore rights to Kanthaswamy Arts Center and North South Arcot rights to S Pictures, they are hoping to finish area-wise reselling by Sunday. The delay in sales of theatrical rights is because of the financial crisis faced by Gemini Films and Boney Kapoor's inexperience in Tamil.

(Edited on 2nd August 2019 : Gemini Films are no longer part of NKP because of financial issues, producers will be releasing the film on their own).

Veteran distributors believe If tier 1 actors do niche films, the film can do max 75% of actor's career best share that too only If the film has good content. Keeping that mind Boney Kapoor was waiting for a distributor to offer around 55 crores for the TN Theatrical Rights of Nerkonda Paarvai. But since its a court room drama, distributors didn't come forward fearing NKP won't appeal to the masses. Now that the deal has been closed for a reasonable price, NKP's success holds key to convince mass heroes to do niche films once in a while.  

Prabhas's Multilingual action film Saaho is slated for August 30th Release. Currently there is no information about Suriya's Kaappaan which was slated for release in the same date. 


September :-





Mouna Guru fame Santhakumar's Magamuni starring Arya is being planned for September 6th Release. Unconfirmed reports hint Sivakarthikeyan's rural family drama directed by Pandiraj may release in September last week. Vijay Sethupathi's Maanimadhan might also release around the same time but there are chances of prepone/postponement.  

October :-




The highly anticipated Karthi-Jeethu Joseph film is slated for release in October but date is yet to be confirmed. Since Karthi's Kaithi is yet to finalize release date, there are possibilities of both films affecting each other. 




Screen Scene signed TN Theatrical Rights of Bigil for 64 crores. The film is being offered all time record prices in all areas. When area-wise reselling is done, Bigil is expected to have biggest pre-release biz for any film in TN surpassing Sarkar (77.5 crores). One of the TN distributors of Sarkar was 2 crores short of the price he offered but since release was just few days away, he was allowed to distribute on a discounted price. Screen Scene is doing all it can to avoid such mishap in Bigil

Sathya Jyothi Films are planning to release Dhanush starrer Pattas on a festive weekend (Either on Diwali or Christmas). 

Hero starring Sivakarthikeyan is confirmed to hit the screens on December 20th. 

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